Webinar African Cities Graeme Harrison 20150119 1200 1

Much has been written about the economic potential of and opportunities for business in Africa. Headline forecasts indicate continued strong growth in many African national economies, notwithstanding the substantial risks involved. But this potential and the market opportunities are rarely quantified at city level – outside of this service - despite Africa being the fastest urbanising region. In Africa, more than any other continent, national and city economic metrics are poles apart as increasingly sophisticated urban economies differ markedly from agricultural, rural economies. National data vastly under-estimates urban economic potential and urban wealth and consumer spend patterns and is less appropriate for assessments of urban business opportunities in Africa.
The combined footprint of the 102 cities across the 49 countries covered by Oxford Economics’ African Cities Forecast Service is impressive: 190 million population, almost US$1 trillion of GDP, 18 million middle and high income households and US$500 billion worth of consumer spending. Even more impressive is the aggregate growth of these 102 cities to 2030: 110 million increase in population, 22 million more middle and high income households, a more than doubling in the level of consumer spending and annual average GDP growth in excess of 5%. Oxford Economics’ African Cities Forecast Service can help business navigate what opportunities urbanisation across the continent will create.
This is the second full year of the service, with Oxford Economics having launched the African Cities Forecast Service towards the end of 2013. In addition to adding new cities and countries, adding a variable for retail sales and linking to the latest African and global macro outlooks, one of the key features of the latest update is incorporating the impact of massive revisions to GDP in some of Africa’s major economies, notably Nigeria and Kenya. The revisions, a result of long overdue rebasing, improvement in methods and better measurement of urban sectors like financial services, telecommunications and creative industries, has transformed the economic footprint of a number cities. It has also altered the rankings of Africa’s cities. Nigerian and Kenyan cities are amongst the big upward movers into and within Africa’s top 20 opportunity cities. The estimated size of Lagos’ economy, in GDP terms, has been revised up by around 175%. Nairobi’s economy is now a quarter larger as a result of national revisions to GDP. In the latest forecasts, Lagos is forecast to be Africa’s largest urban economy in 2030, ahead of Johannesburg.